This AFC matchup pits two playoff hopefuls against each other. Houston, leading the AFC South, looks to secure its spot in the postseason. Houston can clinch the AFC South division title with a win and an Indianapolis Colts loss. Miami, on the outside looking in, needs to win and have help to climb into the playoff picture. The Dolphins’ aerial attack faces a Texans defense built to create turnovers, while Houston’s balanced offense will aim to exploit Miami’s inconsistent run defense.
Week 14 Recap
The Miami Dolphins kept their playoff hopes alive with a hard-fought 32-26 victory over Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. Tua Tagovailoa shone with 331 passing yards and two touchdowns, while
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle dominated the receiving game. However, the Dolphins' rushing attack managed just 44 yards, leaving room for improvement. On defense, Jordyn Brooks and Zach Sieler led with key plays, including three combined sacks.
The Houston Texans enjoyed a bye week but showed resilience in Week 13, defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-20. Joe Mixon’s rushing effort powered the offense, while Nico Collins added explosiveness with over the century mark in receiving yards. The Texans’ defense came up with some clutch plays, like an interception by Derek Stingley Jr., showcasing their opportunistic nature.
Offensive Strengths
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins boast one of the league’s top passing offenses, ranking 2nd in passing yards in their last 3 games, led by Tua Tagovailoa. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are an elite wide receiver duo capable of stretching any secondary. While the rushing game has been underwhelming, ranking 24th in the NFL this season, Miami relies on quick strikes and big plays through the air.
Houston Texans
Houston’s offense thrives on balance. C.J. Stroud has continued to develop into a reliable passer despite Houston's offensive line struggling, while Joe Mixon anchors the ground game with 887 rushing yards and 11 TDs. Wideout Nico Collins adds a deep threat, and tight end Dalton Schultz is a dependable target in critical situations.
Defensive Outlook
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins’ defense leans on linebacker Jordyn Brooks, who leads the team with 113 tackles, and a strong defensive front led by legend Calais Campbell and Zach Sieler. Miami's defense has been one of the most consistent parts of their team, stepping up when needed most, ranking 9th in total defense this season. Miami’s ability to contain Joe Mixon will be key to slowing the Texans' attack.
Houston Texans
Houston’s defense is led by pass rushers Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., linebacker Neville Hewitt, and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. Stingley has been pivotal in pass coverage, while Hewitt’s presence provides stability in the middle. Houston’s defense has excelled at creating turnovers, tied at 3rd best in the NFL with the Bills and Packers, with a potential game-changer against Miami’s aggressive passing offense.
Conclusion and Prediction
The Dolphins’ playoff hopes hinge on a complete performance, especially improving their ground game and run defense. Houston will look to control the clock with Mixon and limit big plays through their secondary from Hill and Waddle. I expect this game to be one of the best games to watch this weekend, and I wouldn't be shocked if either team walked out of NRG Stadium with a win.
JY Official Prediction: Houston 31, Miami 28
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